If you’re going to bet on who’s going to win this year’s World Series of Poker main event, your best bet is likely to take the field. You could have scoured the props and futures bets at every sportsbook that exists online the last four years the WSOP has been held and it’s doubtful you would have found odds on Chris Moneymaker, Greg Raymer, Joseph Hachem or Jamie Gold. You know why? Because before they took home poker’s crowning jewel all four of those guys were unknowns.

You don’t remember talking about how you believed Jamie Gold was going to be the big WSOP winner on the day the $10,000 main event kicked off last year? Do you know why you don’t remember? Because, that never happened.

When you’re trying to predict the WSOP main event winner you’ll likely start with the obvious names like Brunson, Hellmuth, Ferguson, Chan, Nguyen, Negreanu, Lederer and Hansen. Those eight names alone boast more than 30 WSOP bracelets and seven main event championships in the past. Picking at least one of them to wear the championship bracelet this year seems like a no-brainer.

Thanks to the stupid American government this may finally be the year that the famous poker pros take the top tournament in poker back from the unknown amateurs. The American government’s anti-online gambling legislation is expected to cause the WSOP main event levels to drop for the first time in many, many years. Out of a field of 8667 (last year’s field by the way), you’re going to need just as much luck as you will skill to survive to the final table.

If the levels fall to say 5000 or lower like some in the poker world are estimating, the pros should go back to feeding on the amateurs like they used to and the final table will have more than one familiar face – unlike last year where Allen Cunningham was the only standout among the final nine.

Here’s one betting tip. Don’t bet on reigning champion Jamie Gold to win it all again. There hasn’t been a back-to-back champ since Johnny Chan did the deed way back in 1998. That year only 152 players played in the main event. When you’re facing more than 30 times than that in a tourney, repeating as champion is nearly impossible.

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